has fallen at Paradise in the last 10 days? What is estimate of snowfall at Camp Muir during that time? Is it looking like an average snowfall this year even though snow season only about half over? SOunds like Seattle has taken a beating with these series of storms.

Weather data for Rainier: http://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/paradise/now/

This has been a low snow year so far, despite the foot of snow I got (20 miles east of Seattle) this past week. March is typically a big snow month and snow depth on Rainier peaks in April, however, snow late in the year does not stick around as long as snow that falls early in the year.

Asked as it relates to the search for the groups. Sounds like it's been a series of snowstorms with multiple feet have fallen at Paradise over the last 9 days.

Yeah we've been getting hammered. Its 40 degrees and dumping rain where I live, no doubt dumping snow on Rainier. The unfortunate hikers and climbers picked the worst weather system of the entire year to hike and climb on Rainier. Hopefully they are well dug in with plenty of fuel.

Looking at newspaper articles the "camper" from San Diego didn't have any experience camping in snow. A week of biblical snowstorms is a bad initiation into the hazrds of snow camping.

Snowpack is probably pretty close to normal about now. Paradise has got 120+ inches as of today (average for Jan. 15 is 113 inches, average for Feb. 1 is 134 inches, so we're on track), the Summit has about 90 inches, so does Stevens. We started out well in November, but December and early January were complete busts. We were well below normal (but still better off than the rest of the mountain states), but the snowfall in the latest week (I heard it was 80 inches in places) was enough to get us to where we should be at this time of year. We should get some more snow in the next few days, and then I see we're in for another dry spell. Hopefully not too long.

e-doc wrote:Looking at newspaper articles the "camper" from San Diego didn't have any experience camping in snow. A week of biblical snowstorms is a bad initiation into the hazrds of snow camping.

I saw that too. Made me even more worried for them.

etsnyd wrote:Snowpack is probably pretty close to normal about now. Paradise has got 120+ inches as of today (average for Jan. 15 is 113 inches, average for Feb. 1 is 134 inches, so we're on track), the Summit has about 90 inches, so does Stevens. We started out well in November, but December and early January were complete busts. We were well below normal (but still better off than the rest of the mountain states), but the snowfall in the latest week (I heard it was 80 inches in places) was enough to get us to where we should be at this time of year. We should get some more snow in the next few days, and then I see we're in for another dry spell. Hopefully not too long.

Although the raw snow depth is similar to last year at this time, roughly half that 120" is relatively low density new snow. A better indicator of actual frozen mass stored in the snowpack, the snow-water equivalent, is still a couple inches below last year at this time. And last year at this time was pretty low compared to the 40year historical average. We did get significant accelerated winter build-up starting at the end of february last year. In terms of hoping for a good snow year, maybe we'll get a similar acceleration again.

In terms of the 4 people stuck on the mountain, the heavy recent snowfall will definitely have made their ordeal very trying...

The sun is breaking out in Seattle now. Hopefully this is enough of a window for the aerial search to find these folks. http://www.ajc.com/news/air-search-resu ... 13692.html

nhluhr wrote:
In terms of the 4 people stuck on the mountain, I fear they have probably succumbed to the elements at this point. Melting snow takes a tremendous amount of fuel. It would be one thing for them to survive in the Muir shelter for 10+ days, but surviving in a tent on the snowfield, subject to snowfalls overnight that would likely overwhelm their ability to dig out is another. More than enough snow has fallen since they went up to asphyxiate them and collapse and bury their tent many times over.

Nhluhr,
While I think it's perfectly acceptable to post one's opinions on the internet, I think usual etiquette in these situations, is to at least wait and see the situation through to the end before one goes presuming and opining that the parties have "succumbed to the elements," whatever one believes.. . You never know who might be reading these forums, which might include, (and often does), family and friends of the afflicted parties. . Best to wait and see and at least offer some hope, rather than going the other way with this. . . Just my humble opinion.

dskoon wrote:Nhluhr,
While I think it's perfectly acceptable to post one's opinions on the internet, I think usual etiquette in these situations, is to at least wait and see the situation through to the end before one goes presuming and opining that the parties have "succumbed to the elements," whatever one believes.. . You never know who might be reading these forums, which might include, (and often does), family and friends of the afflicted parties. . Best to wait and see and at least offer some hope, rather than going the other way with this. . . Just my humble opinion.

No, you're totally right. I guess with all the dramatic news coming out of Rainier, I've been taking the most recent search a bit heavily. I love Rainier and the snowfield and I hope for the best for the parties stranded up there now. Edited my post above.

I edited my post a bit as well. Thanks for keeping us on level ground dskoon.

Perfect weather today - 90+ miles of visibility. Let's hope the folks on Rainier are able to make a break for it.

Update: It appears that snowpack in the Washington Cascades is running on average about 120% of normal, ahead of where we were last year at this time.

http://www.nwac.us/data/CLISNO

February was unusually wet it seems.