I just checked the snow depth reports and the NOAA extended forecasts so this is the analysis.
Note: I live in Bozeman so this is relevant for Yellowstone, Beartooths and the areas nearby although most of this Northern Rockies area has seen a similar climate.

Many sites had above average snowfall in early January but unseasonably dry and warm temps have brought the snowpack down to around average by Feb. 1. However there has been more really warm weather including record highs in the first 10 days of Feb. There were a few days where the low was above 40F and one or 2 days near 45 and that's unusual (thank you El Nino). Feb 6th through the 8th all had record highs including 60 here in Bozeman and 46 for a record high minimum temp. Almost all of the precip here in Bozeman lately has been rain. There is almost no snow left in town. The extended forecast calls for above average temps and average precip.

I suspect that the hiking season will ramp up at least a month earlier than last year and possibly earlier. So Granite peak will have a longer season and you will probably encounter no snow in the SW couloir on August 7 this year compared to the same date last year when I summited.

Lately, I have been hiking the "M" and there is no snow on the trail mainly due to the S by SW exposure. 2 days ago I went to the Bozeman Creek/Sourdough trail and it is solid ice. Like glacier ice. It was really slippery and I gave up quickly. I suspect all the northern and shaded trails around here will be about the same.

FWIW I spent 10 great days in Seattle at the end of January. I drove and there wasn't shite for snow anywhere. Lookout Pass had a foot or 2 and when I got to Snoqualmie they had about the same but it was raining hard there and the lights were on for night skiing. Suck is too good a word for describing the conditions.

Hey if you're in Bozeman we should hike or climb sometime. I've been going up to near the summit of Baldy a few times and even rock climbing! This has been crazy for sure when at this time last year we were at -40 degrees! Do you climb? I am always looking for Beartooth partners.

Thanks for the post too

Matt, I had shoulder surgery in October and have been a turd since. I just started to get off my fat ass and get some exercise. I never did much rock work and that's why I did Granite from the SW Couloir side. I posted a trip report btw. I did everything in the Bridgers last year, Emmigrant, Hyalite, Ramshorn etc also with some trip reports. I was eyeballin Baldy, too and might be ready physically in about 2 to 4 weeks but I know I'll be slow. I'm 59 now and need conditioning. Wasn't like that when I was 29 LOL.
I was wonderin' if the Beartrap Canyon trail would be iced out?

I'd like to do Rainier or possibly Kili this summer but we'll see. Old age sucks.

I would caution those who think the present condition of the snowpack forecasts the onset of spring. Montana is noted for spring storms that add snow to the mountains quickly. It's been warm and quiet in Montana lately but just when we get the hiking boots out the storms will come.

Here's my new update for SW Montana and the Yellowstone Region. I checked the Snotel sites and others for data. Generally speaking the area has an average snow water equivalent. It is surprising considering Bozeman had about a third less than average precip for Feb and there is mostly no snow in town. I read that the rain we had actually didn't melt the snow but added more moisture to it higher up. EarMountain is correct that we get more precip in the spring but that is usually true on average so we would have to get significantly more than average to make this a big snow year. All the long term forecasts say we will have average precip and higher than average temps which gets more hotter and drier as you look to the northwest coast.

I'm still an optimistic about an average or earlier start to the summer hiking season in this area. We had so much snow last year that I was post holing into June. Granite Peak and the Beartooths should be practically snow free by Aug 7 this year which is the date I did it last year. No snow in the couloir would be a good thing!

Hi Bobber, thanks for the news! Does this mean that I can attempt Gannett Peak in early-mid June in stead of early July? It'll be my 48th state highpoint.

Thanks,
Alex

sm0421 wrote:Hi Bobber, thanks for the news! Does this mean that I can attempt Gannett Peak in early-mid June in stead of early July? It'll be my 48th state highpoint.

Thanks,
Alex

I haven't done Gannett so I don't know but good luck.

Mid March update:
We had some colder than average weather for about 10 days around March 1. But not really cold. Then it warmed up again. It was 63 here 2 days ago and supposed to be 67 on Saturday with most days forecast to be high 50s or warmer. The average high is around 48 so we are pretty warm. The 10 day forecast is much of the same with only one below average day which is forecast to be 47. We haven't had more than an inch of snow at one time here in the Bozone for over a month and there's nothing left in the valleys now. The streets were wet this morning like we had a little rain or heavy dew last night. That would be rain at night in March in Bozeman. That's frickin warm!

I checked the Snotel site and most are reporting less than average with a few slightly above average. The trend is going lower.
http://www.wrds.uwyo.edu/wrds/nrcs/upda ... te-mt.html

April 1 update. We had more of the same in March including 3 record high days. It was 74 yesterday and that was a record and many areas had red flag warnings. Although we had about an inch last night the previous snow line was close 7000' in most spots. Here's the march summary from NOAA.

... March 2015 and Jan-Mar seasonal weather summary for north central
and southwest Montana...

Average temperature... degrees fahrenheit...
Mar norm rank Jan-Mar norm rank
Bozeman... ... 40.4..34.1... 3rd warmest 32.3... .26.6... 2nd warmest
Cut Bank... ..39.8..31.5... 2nd warmest 30.7... .25.9... 4th warmest
Dillon... ... .41.5..34.3... 2nd warmest 34.6... .27.7... 1st warmest
Great Falls..43.6..34.2... 2nd warmest 33.8... .28.9... 10th warmest
Havre... ... ..41.2..32.8... 3rd warmest 29.0... .24.3... 13th warmest
Helena... ... .44.7..36.3... 2nd warmest 34.5... .29.0... 2nd warmest
Lewistown... .42.4..32.9... 2nd warmest 32.8... .27.4... 6th warmest
W yellowston.27.6..24.6... 13th warmest 22.1... .17.4... 5th warmest

Precipitation... inches...
Mar norm Jan-Mar norm
Bozeman... ... .0.47..0.94... 9th driest 0.84... .1.90... 3rd driest
Cut Bank... ... 0.25..0.50... 35th driest 1.14... .0.91... 45th wettest
Dillon... ... ..0.15..0.54... 6th driest 0.34... .1.04... 3rd driest
Great Falls... 0.09..0.91... 2nd wettest 1.49... .1.89... 3rd driest
Havre... ... ... 0.53..0.54... 60th wettest 2.16... .1.15... 24th wettest
Helena... ... ..0.15..0.59... 12th driest 1.17... .1.25... 31st driest
Lewistown... ..0.27..0.99... 7th driest 1.77... .2.00... 36th driest
W Yellowstone.0.38..1.63... 5th driest 2.52... .5.17... 5th driest

Snowfall... inches...
Mar norm Jan-Mar norm
Bozeman msu... 6.5..14.9... 10th lowest 19.8... .39.3... 6th lowest
Cut Bank... ... 3.7.. 7.4... 39th lowest 18.6... .17.4... 40th lowest
Dillon... ... .. 4.0.. 9.0... 47th lowest 5.2... .17.6... 4th lowest
Great Falls... 0.8..11.9... 2nd lowest 23.5... .28.7... 31st lowest
Havre... ... ... T.. 6.3... 4th lowest 15.9... .18.9... 47th lowest
Helena... ... .. T.. 6.2... 2nd lowest 9.1... .17.4... 10th lowest
W Yellowstone. 3.5..19.2... 8th lowest 26.1... .75.8... 2nd lowest

Average wind speed... mph...
Mar norm rank Jan-Mar norm rank
Bozeman... ... .6.1... .6.2... 20th calmest 5.3... . 5.2... 17th calmest
Cut Bank... ..15.3... 13.6... 16th windiest 14.5... .13.5... 28th windiest
Dillon... ... .11.0... 10.2... 19th windiest 10.2... . 9.9... 30th windiest
Great Falls..13.4... 12.2... 25th windiest 12.6... .12.5... 25th calmest
Havre... ... ..11.4... 10.4... 8th windiest 11.1... .10.1... 8th windiest
Helena... ... . 8.0... .7.5... 60th calmest 6.4... . 6.2... 26th calmest
Lewistown... .10.3... 10.0 ..29th windiest 9.9... . 9.9... 27th calmest

With general ridging aloft, Montana experienced warm and dry
conditions in March. A stronger-than-normal ridge anchored along the
West Coast brought sustained west-northwesterly flow aloft to the
state.

March of 2014 and 2015 were in Stark contrast. While 2014 was cool
and wet, this March was very warm and dry. Many locations ranked
among their second or third warmest marchs of record. Bozeman and
Havre had their third warmest March of record, while other locations
were second warmest. At Cut Bank, Great Falls and Havre, this was
the warmest March since 1986. While at Lewistown and Helena, this
was the warmest since 2010. At Dillon, the first three months have
averaged the warmest such period of record. The old record for this
period was in 1992, with an average temperature of 34.6 degrees.
Dillon has also recorded 14 record high temperatures so far this
year. This warmth is consistent across southwest Montana. Even
Wisdom has had 13 record warm high temperatures this year.

All areas in southwest and north central Montana had temperature
averages above normal. Departures ranged from 1.9 degrees above
normal at West Yellowstone, to 9.5 degrees above normal at
Lewistown. Great Falls city recorded the warmest area average, 45.6
degrees, while the coolest March average was at yellow mule, 27.1
degrees. The March temperature extremes were 80 at Loma on the 28th
and -23 at Whiskey Creek on the 4th. The temperature range of 82
degrees at Great Falls was the largest range in March since 2003.
Also, this is the fourth consecutive month of above normal
temperatures.

Precipitation was below normal. Many points ranked among their 10
driest marchs of record. Great Falls, with only 0.09-inches, was the
second driest of record, exceeded only by March 1916. The wettest
location was St Mary, where 3.07-inches of precipitation fell. For
the first three months of the year, this has been the third driest
at Bozeman, Dillon and Great Falls. At Dillon, this is the driest
such period since 1964, while at Great Falls, its been since 2004.
At West Yellowstone, where only 2.52-inches has fallen since January
1, this is the driest such period since 1979.

As with precipitation, snowfall was below normal. Havre and Helena
recorded only a trace for the month, while West Yellowstone had only
3.5 inches. These were the lowest monthly snowfalls since 1993 at
Bozeman, and 1986 at Great Falls. For the year-to-date, this is the
4th lowest value at Dillon and second lowest at West Yellowstone.
This is the smallest amount of snow for the year at West Yellowstone
since 1931. For the water-year, 73-inches of snow at West
Yellowstone is the lowest amount since 1977.

Winds were generally stronger than normal. The strongest wind
average was at Deep Creek RAWS, with an average of 24.5 mph. At
lower elevation locations, two medicine had an average of 15.6 mph
and Cut Bank recorded an average of 15.3 mph. The highest area gust
was on the 28th when strong winds behind a cold front produced many
gusts over 70 mph. The peak was 81 mph near Stanford.

Records for Bozeman began in 1935, Cut Bank began in 1903, Dillon
began in 1939, Great Falls began in 1891, Havre and Helena began
in 1880, and Lewistown began in 1896. West Yellowstone records began
in 1905 and winds began in 2010. The normal period for all elements
is 1981 to 2010.

These data are preliminary and have not undergone final qc by ncdc.
Therefore these data are subject to revision. Final and certified
climate data can be accessed at the National climatic data center
at http://www.Ncdc.NOAA.Gov

I drove from Bozeman to Seattle on Friday, April 3rd. There is no snow on the ground anywhere at road level with the exception of less than a foot at Lookout Pass and Snoqualmie Pass. Those ski areas are very brown and already closed for the season. The southern exposures have no snow. The snow line is quite high everywhere in the northwest. We will probably have a vigorous fire season unfortunately.

The last time I checked the Hobbs Park SNOTEL site in the Winds it was reporting about the same amount of snow and water content as we found on our late June trip to Gannett in 2010. Like Montana, the Wind River range can pick up a lot of snow before summer hits but if conditions stay as dry and warm as they have been the last three months my guess is that Gannett will be accessible at least a month early this year. The same goes for most of Idaho too. Outside of the Tetons, the entire state has around 50% of normal snow pack for this time of year.

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=525

Bob

May 2 update.
We actually had average precip and temps for April however the year to date precip total is still about a third off. I was out of town but my friends said we had a good dump in town in the middle of April and Big Sky Resort got a foot or 2 the last week of operations. They stayed open for the entire scheduled season unlike other resorts in Montana but did have a less than average year.
It is interesting to note that many areas had close to average precip but the snow pack is down significantly due to the unseasonably warm weather and rain earlier this year. For instance the Kootenai River basin up in northwest Montana had 98% average precip but the snowpack is just 42%. The upper Yellowstone River basin which includes the Beartooths had 90% average precip but the snowpack is now just 71% of normal for this date. There is not one river basin that shows average or better snowpack in Montana or Northern Wyoming and most are at least 30% off of normal with many worse off.
We still seem to be on track for an early hiking season.

Bobber wrote:May 2 update. ...
It is interesting to note that many areas had close to average precip but the snow pack is down significantly due to the unseasonably warm weather and rain earlier this year. For instance the Kootenai River basin up in northwest Montana had 98% average precip but the snowpack is just 42%. ...

The precipitation or "water year" begins October first. If one counts the precipitation from October 1, 2014 through May 1, 2015 the Northern Rockies are above normal for the water year. Unfortunately much of this came as early season snow and rain. That snow melted before the onset of winter. That water is no longer available for river runoff, irrigation, etc. The snow pack is indeed way below normal. I've been able to hike trails in April that are often not clear of snow until mid May. And the trails are quite dry with little muddy sections. Most folks near where I live are concerned about the possibility of a strong fire season.

June 3rd update.
May had just about normal precip in our area so things aren't that bad but we are still down overall. The mountains are lookin' good so get out there!